Чи поб’є індекс S&P/TSX Composite свій рекорд в наступному році?

Напередодні Нового Року вже можна починати підводити підсумки нинішнього року для канадського фондового ринку. З початку року і до кінця листопада індекс S&P/TSX Composite виріс приблизно на 16%. Якщо індекс втримається на цьому рівні або ж виросте до кінця року, 2016-й стане найкращим для цього індексу з 2009 року. Це також буде перший рік, починаючи з 2009-го, коли S&P/TSX Composite покаже кращий результат, ніж індекс S&P 500. Останній на даний момент виріс на 10,5% з початку року. Цього року індекс біржі Торонто обіцяє стати найбільш прибутковим серед індексів розвинених ринків.

Порівняльне зростання індексів TSX та S&P 500 за 12 останніх місяців (джерело: web.tmxmoney.com)

За цими високими показниками стоїть зростання цін на сировинні товари: у 2016 році Bloomberg Commodity Index зріс на 9%. Два основних сировинних товари, золото і нафта, виросли на 11% і 24% (WTI Crude), відповідно.

У наступному році ситуація на основних товарних ринках, ймовірно, продовжить впливати на динаміку канадського фондового ринку. Якщо ціни на нафту і метали зростуть, індекс S&P/TSX Composite цілком може побити свій рекорд у більш ніж 15600 пунктів, встановлений у вересні 2014 р. Зараз індекс знаходиться на позначці приблизно 15100 пунктів.

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лимитед

Sürgünlik - Recognition of Tatar Deportations

The Ukrainian Canadian Congress is calling on all Canadians to support Bill C-306 which is an act to establish a Crimean Tatar Deportation "Sürgünlik" Memorial Day in Canada. Below is the text of their press release which we received today on the matter. We urge our members to read the communique and familiarize themselves with this important issue.

UCC Supports Canadian Bill Establishing 

Crimean Tatar Deportation Memorial Day

Flag of the Crimean Tatar Nation

28 November 2016. OTTAWA. The Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) fully supports Bill C-306, An Act to establish a Crimean Tatar Deportation ("Sürgünlik") Memorial Day and to recognize the mass deportation of the Crimean Tatars in 1944 as an act of genocide. Bill C-306 was introduced in the House of Commons by Kerry Diotte (MP-Edmonton Griesbach) on September 28.

The entire Crimean Tatar People, the indigenous people of Crimea, were exiled to the Soviet east in 1944 by the totalitarian regime of Joseph Stalin. Hundreds of thousands of men, women and children were forcibly and violently deported - almost half lost their lives during the first year of exile - for no crime other than their language, culture and traditions.

Ukrainian Canadian Congress Logo

The vast majority returned home from exile in the early 1990s, thanks largely to the welcoming policy of the government of independent Ukraine. It is for this reason that the Crimean Tatars and their political and civic institutions are fiercely loyal to Ukraine and today live in fear or have been again exiled under illegal Russian rule.

In November 2015, Ukraine's Parliament recognized this crime as an act of Genocide against the Crimean Tatar People and established May 18 as the Day of Remembrance of the Genocide of the Crimean Tatar People.   Bill C-306 honours the memory of the hundreds of thousands of victims of the forced deportation of the Crimean Tatar People, and underlines Canada's enduring commitment to human rights and fundamental freedoms.

"Today, the indigenous Crimean Tatars together with the Ukrainian people and other ethnic and religious minorities living in Crimea, face severe repression by their Russian occupiers," stated UCC National President Paul Grod.  "It is vital for all Members of Canada's Parliament to support this important legislation and to ensure that Canada continues to take concrete actions to oppose Russia's illegal occupation and annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula."

For the full text of Bill C-306, please see here

Contact your local MP in support of Bill C-306
Please contact your local Member of Parliament and express your support for Bill C-306.To find the contacts for your Member of Parliament by Postal Code, please see here

Holodomor Awareness Day in Ottawa

The University of Ottawa Ukrainian Students' Club share this report of their Holodomor Commemoration with us, so we are reposting it for you to read:

On Wednesday, November 16, 2016, in Ottawa, Canada, the nation's capital, SUSK uOttawa (University of Ottawa Ukrainian Students' Club) organized Holodomor Awareness Day, on the 83rd anniversary in commemoration of millions of innocent victims of Ukraine’s Holodomor – Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin's man made famine genocide to destroy the Ukrainian nation perpetrated in 1932-1933.

In Ukrainian villages and countryside, all available food grains and farm animals were confiscated or destroyed by the Soviet regime. Soviet NKVD and Red army units deliberately sealed the borders. Millions of starving Ukrainians were condemned to a gruesome death deprived of any sustenance in one of the most fertile agriculture zones on earth, simply for being Ukrainian.
The truth about Holodomor, death by starvation, was deliberately concealed for many decades by the Soviet Union, in the hope that its memory would be lost forever.

A Holodomor Exhibition Information Table with posters encouraged reflective discussion through handout materials and bookmarks to engage Ottawa's diverse community in the vibrant University Centre of University of Ottawa, to honor the memory of millions of innocent Ukrainian lives deliberately starved to death under flagrant repression and criminal atrocities orchestrated by the Soviet regime.

Organizer Iuliia Zubrytska, LLM (Master of Laws) and SUSK uOttawa Executive Board representative, stated:

“Today SUSK uOttawa contributed to defeating indifference by reaching beyond to inform broad-based multicultural University of Ottawa community, many of whom had not previously been aware of Holodomor and Soviet atrocities.
The complexity of harm done to Ukrainian people is so enormous, that we can witness ongoing damaging elements today in contemporary Ukraine.”

Petula Fernandes, student at Health Sciences department of the University of Ottawa confirmed the event contributed with dignity for those who wished to learn more : “It is very important to be involved in commemoration of Holodomor – a genocide by a man-made famine perpetrated by Joseph Stalin's regime in Soviet Ukraine during 1932-33 that killed 10 million Ukrainians.”

Iuliia Zubrytska added:
“My grandmother’s brother and Holodomor survivor Fedir from Khreshchate village, Poltava oblast, would often serve me as a potent reminder of the failed attempt of Soviet empire to fully destroy the existential centre of Ukrainian nation and culture – its village.”

Numerous University of Ottawa students, professors, community members and other participants demonstrated their care about flagrant violation of human rights in Ukraine. Their compassion and open-heartedness made our Holodomor Awareness day rewarding and meaningful.

Ukraine remembers, the world acknowledges!
Sincerely,
Iuliia Zubrytska, LLM

Holodomor Memorial Week

AS the Holodomor is the name given to the great famine and genocide that occurred in Ukraine in 1932 and 1933;

AS millions of Ukrainians perished as victims of a famine deliberately induced by the Soviet regime under Joseph Stalin;

AS the forced collectivization of agriculture imposed by the Soviet regime under Joseph Stalin resulted in the death of millions among the other peoples of the former Soviet Union;

 

To commemorate those who have been lost, November 21st - 27th 2016 marks Holodomor Memorial week. Ukrainian Credit Union will be marking this week today in our branches.

Great value investors, their methods and results

Value investing is considered among one of the simplest and safest strategies for picking stocks that have potential for outperformance. Those who make a living outside the stock market in most cases simply do not have the time to spend analyzing stocks in the fullest manner, and so picking an easy to understand and easy to execute strategy is helpful in identifying stocks with a better chance for performing well.
 
Value investing focuses on picking a stock that is trading below its “intrinsic” value. This is the first part of a successful value investing strategy, to pick the right “value” stock. The second part focuses on maintaining discipline in trading when the stock reaches the anticipated “intrinsic” value, is sold and the expected return is realized.
 
In most cases, value investors focus on stocks based on indicators of value (current price below “intrinsic” value), such as low Price per share relative to Earnings per share (or P/E ratio); low Price/Book Value (P/B) ratio; or low Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) ratio. The most up-to-date readings of those ratios for most stocks are generally readily available online. Often, a stock that is trading at a P/E ratio below 10, or a P/B ratio below 1.0 or a P/CF ratio below 5 would be considered inexpensive, or at good value.
 
An alternative strategy to value investing is growth investing – where investors look for companies who have higher than average revenue and earnings growth and are projected to maintain this higher growth into the future. But we’ll leave this strategy for another day. 

Returning to value investing, Benjamin Graham is considered the father of this investment strategy. He started teaching this investment approach at Columbia Business School in 1928. His famous disciple, Warren Buffet, called Benjamin Graham’s book, “The Intelligent Investor”, published in 1949, "the best book about investing ever written." Warren Buffet’s admiration of Benjamin Graham was so profound that he called his son, Howard Graham Buffett, after his teacher.

Benjamin Graham

Warren Buffet is probably the best known value investor of our time. Not only was Buffet Benjamin Graham's student at Columbia, but he later joined Graham’s investment firm. In 1965, Buffet took over Berkshire Hathaway and since that time, to last year (2015), Bershire Hathaway delivered a 20.8% annual compounded return – this compares to an annual compound return of 9.7% for the S&P 500 index over the same period. Warren Buffet’s net worth is currently estimated to be U.S $64.8 billion.

Warren Buffet

Another successful and well-known value investor was the economist John Maynard Keynes. Apart from being a revolutionary economist, he managed the endowment of King’s College at the University of Cambridge. According to the new research paper in Business History Review by David Chambers and Ali Kabiri (via Jason Zweig’s piece on http://blogs.wsj.com), in 1922-1946, Keynes’ stock portfolio outperformed the U.K. stock market by an average of 6.00% annually. This was a period marked by the worst market crash, the deepest economic depression and the most devastating world war in modern history. As the research paper notes, successful investing during this kind of period required a lot of preparation, courage and patience.

Because Keynes focused on stocks that traded at relatively low prices, he did not benefit from the bull market of the 1920s and, in 1924-1929, his portfolio had underperformed the British stock market by 40 percentage points.

But Keynes’ patience paid off as he did not waver in his value strategy. Keynes showed courage by investing in U.S. stocks after the 1929 market crash. Although stocks continued falling during the depression, he invested heavily in U.S. companies throughout the 1930s. The paper in Business History Review states that Keynes focused on a small number of stocks trading at low valuation ratios often holding these positions for periods of eight years or more until their prices rose to the anticipated “intrinsic” value. This is how he beat the broader stock market over the longer term.

John Maynard Keynes

Michael Zienchuk, MBA, CIM

Investment Advisor, Credential Securities Inc.

Manager, Wealth Strategies Group

Ukrainian Credit Union

416-763-5575 x204

mzienchuk@ukrainiancu.com

www.ukrainiancu.com

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