Call it what you like, but this stock has had a big impact on our competition, if this trend doesn't change over the next several weeks. Just a week and half into our 8 week contest, and Yellow Media (YLO-T) has generated a 129% return for the lead portfolio in our contest. Now, I'm not counting any portfolio out or anything like that, but either brillance or plain dumb luck has put one contestant far and away into the lead. The second highest portfolio return up to now is 15%, and third highest is 7%. It is still early days, and we'll keep posting developments. The chart above is a 10-day chart of YLO-T courtesy of bigcharts.com
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Brilliance or Dumb Luck?!
Call it what you like, but this stock has had a big impact on our competition, if this trend doesn't change over the next several weeks. Just a week and half into our 8 week contest, and Yellow Media (YLO-T) has generated a 129% return for the lead portfolio in our contest. Now, I'm not counting any portfolio out or anything like that, but either brillance or plain dumb luck has put one contestant far and away into the lead. The second highest portfolio return up to now is 15%, and third highest is 7%. It is still early days, and we'll keep posting developments. The chart above is a 10-day chart of YLO-T courtesy of bigcharts.com
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Of course it was pure brilliance :)
ReplyDeletebut reality is that timing was really good too. while i think YLO is a dead business (who still uses a phone book??), shares got punished far too much after the company suspended its dividend. so at $0.19/sh, it was too tempting to load up and hope that investors would realize option value alone makes it a double or triple from there.
while the quick move might encourage some selling, with an enterprise value of ~$3.5 bln and a market cap of only $250 mln, risk/reward is still attractive i think.
Marc
Yea right, brilliance LOL, pure luck. YLO is not an investment its a gamble. I bet this Marc would never put his money where his mouth is. It's all good fun on a fake portfolio like this, but in real world no mad-men would ever invest 99% of his assets into 1 stock, let alone, into Yellow Media, the company is a deadbeat. I wouldn't be surprised if it tumbled to 0 in the next two months.
ReplyDelete-Bitter Rival
LOL! Bitter rivalry indeed :-). I have to tell you that watching how that portfolio performs from day to day is becoming an exciting little part of our daily routine here (Mike sits in the office next to mine). Sure there's lots of chance operating here, but sometimes it's what you have to do. Looking to see what stock was down more than it should be and then staking a bet on it is one way that fortunes have been made (and lost of course) time and again.
ReplyDeleteNonetheless I have to admit a personal twinge of envy looking at this portfolio.
Or there could be some insider trading...
ReplyDeleteNo one in their right mind would choose that stock. It has been consistently battered and analyst report consenus is a STRONG SELL! Based on the companys history and pure logic there is no rationale in holding this stock. They turned around due to disposition in operating sections. Not impressed.
-Another bitter rival.
And yet a perfectly sane individual has not only chosen it, but ridden it up to a great return. Thing is though I'm willing to bet that anyone who is serious about challenging Marc's strong early showing is keeping their eye on that trade date on November 17, and furiously looking for highly undervalued stocks. Also, probably first time I've heard of someone who is trading with fake money being accused of "insider trading". ROFLMAO.
ReplyDeleteIt is obvious that someone looking at anothers success would like to attribute it to luck alone. I had mentioned that I was impressed with all the portfolios entered into the competition. Some were structured to be very balanced, as one would expect any long term investment strategy to be. Others, focusing on making a directional bet, and in many cases, a big bet. Some portfolios are focused on ETFs with a bearish bent - this worked for the first two days of the competition, but over the past 7 trading days has put them behind. That's what makes a market - you have bulls, bears, etc. It is not outrageous to pick a stock that has been badly beaten and go long it ... Warren Buffet did exactly that when he went long Bank of America (BAC) as it was getting pummeled in August! No one else "in their right mind" would have touched it, but Mr. Buffet did. The trade looked silly through September and early October, but now looks profitable.
ReplyDelete