Чи можуть погані новини для економіки стати гарними новинами для ринків?

Щойно, і майже синхронно, надійшли досить погані економічні новини з Канади та США. Статистичне управління Канади повідомило, що ВВП Канади в першому кварталі цього року знизився на 0.6%, що стало найбільшим спадом за останні майже шість років. Судячи з усього, падіння цін на нафту має більш глибокий вплив на нашу економіку, ніж вважалося, – експерти очікували зростання ВВП на 0.3% у першому кварталі.

Хоча економіка США є більш диверсифікованою, ніж канадська, від південних сусідів щойно надійшли дуже схожі новини. ВВП США знизився на 0.7% у першому кварталі. Інші сьогоднішні економічні новини з США також не тішать: корпоративні прибутки у США впали на 5.9%, найбільше падіння з 2008 року, а споживчі настрої знизилися до шестимісячного мінімуму в травні (marketwatch.com).

Такі новини обвалили фондові ринки. Фондові індекси США і Канади на даний момент впали на 0.7% -1.0%. У той же час, що погано для економіки – не завжди є погано для фондових ринків. Ринки сильно зростали у 2009-2014 рр. не тільки завдяки економічному відновленню, яке насправді було досить крихким – протягом останніх чотирьох років, квартальний ріст ВВП США був в мінусі вже три рази.

Зростання ринків значною мірою відбувалося через програми кількісного пом’якшення Федеральної резервної системи США та Банку Канади, які викинули на ринки величезний об’єм ліквідності. Більшість спостерігачів очікували, що ФРС буде підвищувати відсоткові ставки цього року, але нинішні економічні проблеми, ймовірно, відсунуть ці плани на майбутнє. Це може підтримати ціни на акції в найближчі місяці.

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лимитед

Could the bad news for the economy become good news for the markets?

Today has brought a couple of devastating pieces of economic news from North America. Statistics Canada has just reported that the Canadian GDP in the first quarter this year dropped 0.6%, the biggest decline in almost six years. Apparently, the oil price shock is having a more profound effect on our economy than most people had thought as market experts expected a GDP growth of 0.3% in the first quarter.

Although the U.S. economy is more diversified than the Canadian one, similar news came out today south of the border. The U.S. GDP dropped 0.7% in the first quarter. In addition to this, other economic news from the U.S. has also been less than impressive – corporate profits in general have contracted by 5.9% in the first quarter 2015б while May’s consumer sentiment is at a six-month low (both from marketwatch.com).

These kind of developments have soured market sentiment in both Toronto and New York. The U.S. and Canadian stock indices are down between 0.7%-1.0% today. At the same time, what is bad for the economy may not always be bad for stocks. The markets had been growing strongly in 2009-2014 while the economic recovery has actually been quite fragile – in the past four years, the U.S. quarterly GDP growth has been in the negative territory three times already.

The growth of the markets has been largely due to the quantitative easening implemented by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada which has flooded the markets with liquidity. Most observers expected that the Fed would raise interest rates this year, but the current economic weakness is likely to push these plans further into the future. This may well support the stock valuations in the months to come.

Ukrainian Credit Union Limited

UCU Helps Ukraine: Victor Lehkodukh

A 22-year-old Victor is a commander of the first platoon of the first company of the 25th Airborne Brigade. He is currently in a military hospital in Lviv undergoing treatment for severe injuries. He still has a mine fragment in his spine. The family is collecting money for a difficult surgery, which is planned to be done in Israel.

Victor is a career officer: in 2013, he graduated from Lviv Land Forces Academy named after hetman Sahaidachnyy, Department of Airborne Forces and Military Intelligence.

He was in the ​​ATO zone since March 1, 2014, the start of the conflict. His Brigade’s objective was to liberate several settlements from the militants. On August 16, he, along with his fellow men came under mortar attack near Zhdanivka, Donetsk oblast. Victor was seriously injured during the shelling. He has mine-blast trauma, penetrating firearm shrapnel injury in the left shoulder and the left half of the chest, bruised left lung, thoracic spine and spinal cord. He also has numerous fractures of the left scapula, and of the third and fourth left ribs.

Before the Lviv hospital, Victor was treated in Odessa, where numerous fragments were extracted, but the doctors did not dare touch the biggest one. This fragment is now in the 3rd thoracic vertebrae which has caused involuntary movement in his legs. The legs were moving and spinning so that at night they he had to be tied to bed. His condition started improving in Lviv, where the doctors have conducted preoperative procedures. But anyway, says his stepfather, Victor’s feet get crossed in the morning and they have to be separated and massaged.

Before the war, Victor was active in sports, and he is a strong man. An instructor from the Academy, who visited Victor in the hospital, said that the Victor broke his toe on the eve of his parachuting test but proceeded to jump and passed the exam with distinction.

After the spinal injury, Victor can not raise himself but the doctors are saying that he will be able to walk again. He needs a complex surgery which could be done in the Israeli hospital. But the family lacks money – only transportation would cost tens of thousands of dollars. The family wants to put Victor on his feet.

To contribute toward Victor's treatments and therapies, please visit your branch or contact the call centre at 1.800.461.0777 to make a donation.

Lots of photos of the injured soldiers we are helping can be found on our Facebook page in the album UCU Helps Ukraine.

Read the stories of some of our other heroes:

Serhiy, Olexander, Andriy, Anton, Oleksij, Yevhen, Yurij, Serhij, and Ruslan.

Questions and inquiries about this initative can be directed to the UCU Helps Ukraine committee, Kateryna Litvinjuk (klitvinjuk@ukrainiancu.com), Michael Zienchuk (mzienchuk@ukrainiancu.com), and Roman Mlynko (rmlynko@ukrainiancu.com).

Війна на виснаження триває

Росія проти України: війна на виснаження триває

Цього вівторка український парламент фактично визнав, що країна наближається до дефолта за зовнішніми боргами. Верховна Рада прийняла закон, який дозволяє уряду не здійснювати виплати за зобов'язаннями перед зовнішніми приватними кредиторами. Прем'єр-міністр України Арсеній Яценюк сказав в Раді, що країна має сплатити $30 млрд зовнішніх боргів протягом наступних трьох років, в той час як внутрішні борги складають $17 млрд. Проблеми України зростають: минулого тижня Укрзалізниця, державний залізничний оператор, оголосила технічний дефолт за своїми внутрішніми і зовнішніми боргами на суму близько $1.5 млрд.

У інших обставинах, настрій в Україні, ймовірно, відрізнявся би в у подібній ситуації. Але зараз імовірний дефолт не є найбільшою проблемою України. Країна знаходиться у стані війни, і майже кожен день приносить новини про військові і цивільні жертви на Донбасі. Багато українців задаються питанням, а може іноземні інвестори мали би взяти на себе частку відповідальності за те, що відбувається практично в центрі Європи? Чому Україна повинна обслуговувати свої борги західним інвесторам, якщо вона захищає Європу від російської агресії?

Тим не менш, ситуація не така проста. В останні тижні посилилася критика українського Президента та уряду за відсутність реформ і корупцію у країні. Багато хто говорить, що керівництво України не робить достатньо зусиль, щоб запобігти кризі. Багато хто ставить питання, чи отримає Україна вигоду від дефолту і зменшення тягаря зовнішньої заборгованості, чи справи в Україні не зміняться, і почнуть накопичуватися нові борги без будь-яких поліпшень в економіці та бізнес-кліматі?

В той же час, економіка Росії почуває себе також не дуже добре. У квітні 2015 року обсяг промислового виробництва там впав на 4.5% порівняно з квітнем 2014 року, що стало найбільшим падінням з 2009 року, в той час як МВФ очікує, що ВВП Росії знизиться на 3.4% цього року. Росте кількість банкрутств в російському банківському секторі, а кошти російського Агентства страхування депозитів, як очікується, закінчаться в цьому місяці.

Проте, економічна ситуація в Росії ще не така гостра, як в Україні. Ця гібридна війна, здається, увійшла в стадію дуже крихкої рівноваги, яка може бути порушена у будь-який момент військовими чи економічними засобами.

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лимитед

War of Attrition Continues

Russia vs. Ukraine: the war of attrition continues

This Tuesday, the Ukrainian Parliament effectively admitted that the country is nearing a default on its foreign debt. The Verkhovna Rada passed a law which allows the government to miss payments on its obligations to private creditors. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk said at the Rada that the country needs to pay back $30 billion in foreign debt over the next three years, while the domestic debts due amount to $17 billion. Ukraine’s problems are mounting: last week, the state railway operator, Ukrzaliznytsia, announced a technical default on its domestic and foreign debts worth about $1.5 billion.

In different circumstances, the mood in Ukraine would probably be different in this kind of situation. But currently, the looming default is not Ukraine’s biggest problem. The country is at war and almost every day brings news about military and civilian casualties on the Donbas front. Many Ukrainians are wondering, maybe the foreign investors need to take their share of responsibility for what is going on in what is practically the centre of Europe? Why does Ukraine have to service its debts to the West if it is practically singlehandedly protecting Europe from the Russian aggression?

However, the situation is not as straightforward. In the past weeks, the Ukrainian President and government have been under growing criticism for the lack of reforms and persistent corruption in the country. Many are accusing the leadership of not doing their share to avert the crisis. Many are asking the question, will Ukraine benefit from defaulting and shedding the burden of foreign debt, or will the business continue as usual and the new debts will start piling up without any improvements in the economy or business climate?

In the meantime, the Russian economy is not doing well either. In April 2015, the country’s industrial output dropped 4.5% as compared to April 2014, the biggest rate of decline since 2009, while the IMF expects that Russia’s GDP will drop 3.4% this year. Bankruptcies in the Russian banking sector are piling up while the country’s Deposit Insurance Agency is expected to run out of money this month. However, Russia’s economic situation is still not as dire as Ukraine’s. This hybrid war seems to have entered a stage of a very fragile balance which could be broken by either military or economic means.

Ukrainian Credit Union Limited

UCU Helps Ukraine: Serhiy Tytarenko

Serhiy Tytarenko – a major with Armed Forces of Ukraine, was a helicopter navigator, served as the navigator with Lieutenant Colonel Valentyn Tsybulskyy’s crew.

On June 4, 2014, his Mi-24 helicopter took off for a combat mission to strike at the terrorist position 4 km off the town of Sloviansk, which had shelled the town with anti-aircraft missiles. The terrorists fired at the helicopter and hit it twice with heavy machine guns and MANPADS. The helicopter fell from an altitude of 100 meters. After the emergency landing, fire engulfed the cabin where Serhiy Tytarenko was trapped. He could not get out as he could not feel his arms or legs. Colonel Tsybulskyy, himself on fire, pulled Tytarenko off the cabin. Serhiy obtained heavy-thoracic vertebral and spinal injuries. He also had a severe compression of the thoracic spinal bone fragments and trauma of internal organs. He has since undergone several complex operations.

For personal courage and heroism in defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, loyalty to the military oath during the Russo-Ukrainian war, he was awarded the Order of Bogdan Khmelnitsky III degree.

It should be noted that, in 2012, Captain Tytarenko was awarded the Order For Courage III degree while he served on the 18th separate helicopter detachment in Ukraine’s contingent within the UN mission in Congo.

Major Tytarenko resides in Brody, Lviv region. He has two children, his younger son was only seven months when his father was injured.

The family has not received any help from the government, though they were promised one. Because of bad health, Serhiy needs to be under medical supervision all time.

The military hospital commission has already met and decided that he is not able to serve any longer. He is thus not receiving any salary. He is about to receive a disability status. If he receives a Group A status, he will be getting only a small pension, because he will not be eligible for work, as only Group B status allows one to be employed. Serhiy is currently trying to learn programming in between medical procedures.

His wife is taking care of him but she is having to sleep on chairs in his hospital room as they have no means to rent an apartment or even a room.

To contribute toward Serhiy's treatments and therapies, please visit your branch or contact the call centre at 1.800.461.0777 to make a donation.

Lots of photos of the injured soldiers we are helping can be found on our Facebook page in the album UCU Helps Ukraine.

Read the stories of some of our other heroes:

Olexander, Andriy, Anton, Oleksij, Yevhen, Yurij, Serhij, and Ruslan.

Questions and inquiries about this initative can be directed to the UCU Helps Ukraine committee, Kateryna Litvinjuk (klitvinjuk@ukrainiancu.com), Michael Zienchuk (mzienchuk@ukrainiancu.com), and Roman Mlynko (rmlynko@ukrainiancu.com).

Win a ticket to go to Vyshyvanyj Vechir

Win a ticket to go to VYSHYVANYJ VECHIR Zabava

Saturday, May 23 at 9:00pm –  145 Evans Ave., Toronto

Just Like our Facebook page plus this contest picture and you'll be automatically entered! 

Contest ends May 21, 2015 at 12pm.

UCU Helps Ukraine: Olexander Kosolapov

Olexander comes from Shchastia (the Ukrainian for happiness), a town in the Luhansk region. His Ukrainian is so good, one wouldn’t believe that Olexander is an Easterner! The story of how he came to participate in the Anti-Terrorist Operation is interesting.

 «The separatists drove us from Shchastia, because in all meetings in March 2014 I called to our pro-Russian activists to not get us into war. I fought in Afghanistan, lost a lung there (shows a scar on his chest) so I begged them to stop. You do not know what war is, and I know - I would tell them, but they did not listen me, called me a fascist and Banderite and finally kicked us out of the city. Then we met with the commander, who came to create the volunteer battalion «Aydar», and we together with my son became its members. I am proud that my son turned out such a patriot, though he lived in the Luhansk region and was a Russian-speaker. He said: «This is my country and I will defend it.” My son was 26 and turned 27 in «Aydar», he is still with them, fighting, stationed in Shchastia. He said, «I was born here and will not go away, if necessary, I will die here.» I am very worried about him, it was easier when he was lying in the trench beside me and I knew that if anything, I can cover him with myself.»

How did you get injured?

«Lviv 80 Airborne Brigade was under siege at the airport, terrorists fired at them with «Grad» missiles and it was impossible to evacuate the wounded for four days. We attacked the airport from the city to pick up the wounded. However, the separatists fought us off. As a local, I knew another path to the airport - through the village Heorhiyivka, there were separatists and we would have to bypass it. There was a meeting of the commanders and Sergei Melnychuk («Aydar» commander) called me, because I knew the area. The general said, no reconnaissance, go ahead! They called for volunteers to kick the separatists out of Heorhiyivka and hold the village. 54 «Aydar» fighters volunteered. The 30th Brigade gave us tanks and armoured vehicles. We were driving all night. You would need to see how we were greeted there! The village had a narrow street, and after that a railway station and a field. An old lady came to greet us with a bottle of water and a large family, father and children, with a Ukrainian flag... They wept with joy that they could see their own people. Later there were fierce battles... We kicked the separatists out of the village and kept it. They continued to advance but we managed to transport the wounded from Luhansk Airport.

That’s where I caught my mine, which exploded literally on my leg. I thought I would lose the leg, because it was holding only by a piece of skin. The boys dragged me to the car and all of us wounded, 30 soldiers, in the back of a KAMAZ truck, drove for eight hours under fire on terrible roads. The helicopter delivered me to Kharkiv, and I stayed there only one day, later was Lviv, a resuscitation ward...»

Victor Lovha, a doctor at the military hospital, and an 8th Hospital hospital doctor, Volodymyr Savchyn, assembled the leg by particles and sewed on all its vessels. The operations under a spinal anesthesia took five days. They took the skin from Olexander’s hands and put it on the wounds. Then there were complications, pain lasting for three months, then they started rescuing the bone, which is now held in the Ilizarov apparatus. A metallic pin must now be inserted into the bone, it is very expensive –UAH 10,000. Olexander has a bone broken in his other leg too, he also had mine fragments in his belly. In total, he underwent nine operations.

To contribute toward Olexander's treatments and therapies, please visit your branch or contact the call centre at 1.800.461.0777 to make a donation.

Lots of photos of the injured soldiers we are helping can be found on our Facebook page in the album UCU Helps Ukraine.

Read the stories of some of our other heroes:

Andriy, Anton, Oleksij, Yevhen, Yurij, Serhij, and Ruslan.

Questions and inquiries about this initative can be directed to the UCU Helps Ukraine committee, Kateryna Litvinjuk (klitvinjuk@ukrainiancu.com), Michael Zienchuk (mzienchuk@ukrainiancu.com), and Roman Mlynko (rmlynko@ukrainiancu.com).

You could win* a $5,000 travel credit!

A spectacular spring escape could be yours!

Why not make a CHOICE REWARDS® MasterCard® credit card from Ukrainian Credit Union Limited your go-to card for day-to-day purchases? We offer a competitive selection of credit cards and this spring there are some great incentives to convince you to apply for your own.

Between April 1, 2015 and May 31, 2015 all members who are approved for a CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card get an automatic entry into a contest for a chance to win* one of six regional prizes of a $5,000 travel credit.

Get up to 5,000 Bonus Points^††!

Everyone can be a winner during the Spectacular Spring Escape. In addition to your chance of winning a $5,000 travel credit, you can get up to 5,000 Bonus Points^†† when you get your new credit card. That’s a value of up to $50 just for being approved for an eligible CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card. The chart below shows how many Bonus Points^†† you can earn just by being approved for one of the many credit cards we offer.  

CHOICE REWARDS Card	Standard Bonus Points††
CHOICE REWARDS World Elite® MasterCard credit card	5,000
Gold CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card	5,000
Low Fee Gold CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card	3,000
Low Fee CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card	1,000
Student CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card	1,000

Apply for a card today

If you don’t already have a CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card from Ukrainian Credit Union Limited, visit your nearest branch to speak with one of our staff, or if you want more information visit www.springescape.ca.

Below is a quick overview of some of the credit cards we offer.

1.     CHOICE REWARDS World Elite MasterCard credit card – access to services around the globe.

• New cardholders get 5,000 bonus points†† upon approval!
• Earn 2 CHOICE REWARDS points‡ for every $1 spent on eligible purchases, enjoy flexible redemption‡ options, gain access to elite concierge service** and get price protection for everything you buy in Canada**.
• Other card features include:

o   Emergency cards and cash

o   24-hour lost/stolen card assistance

o   Out-of-Province/Country Travel Health Plan**

o   MasterTrip®**

o   MasterPurchase®**

o   MasterRental®**

o   Concierge Services**

o   Price Protection**

2.     Gold CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card – The card that lets you and your family travel with peace of mind.

•  New cardholders get 5,000 bonus points†† upon approval!
• Other card features include:

o   Lost or stolen card assistance

o   Out-of-Province/Country Travel Medical Insurance**

o   MasterTrip®**

o   MasterPurchase®**

o   MasterRental®**

3.     Low Fee Gold CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card - Protection with rewards and the prestige of Gold, this card is a smart shopper's choice.

• New cardholders get 3,000 bonus points†† upon approval!
• Other card features include:

o   MasterTrip®**

o  MasterPurchase®**

o  MasterRental®**

Aside from these three cards, we also offer the Low Fee CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card, No fee CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard credit card and the Student CHOICE REWARDS MasterCard card. For details about the features of these cards please visit one of our branches and speak to an employee of Ukrainian Credit Union Limited or call our Call Centre at 416-922-4407, 800-461-0777.

* No purchase necessary. Entry is automatic upon approval. If applicants do not wish to be entered into the Contest, they must indicate their preference to opt-out at the time they submit their application to the credit union. Contest ends at 11:59:59 p.m. ET on May 31, 2015. There are six (6) regional Prizes to be won on the basis of one (1) Prize per following region: British Columbia; Alberta; Saskatchewan; Manitoba; Ontario and the Atlantic Provinces. Each Prize consists of one (1) CDN$5,000 travel certificate. Odds of winning depend on the number of eligible entries received. Correct answer to mathematical skill-testing question is required. Full Rules are available at www.springescape.ca
†† This is a one-time bonus offer for members that are approved for a new CHOICE REWARDS World Elite, Gold, Low Fee Gold, Low Fee or Student MasterCard credit card account. New World Elite and Gold MasterCard credit cardholders will receive 5,000 bonus CHOICE REWARDS points; new Low Fee Gold MasterCard credit cardholders will receive 3,000 bonus CHOICE REWARDS points; new Low Fee and Student MasterCard credit cardholders will receive 1,000 bonus CHOICE REWARDS points in connection with this offer. Limit one-time bonus point offer (no cash value) per new account. Please allow up to 60 days from the account open date for the bonus points to be posted to member's points account. This is offered by CUETS Financial and may be amended or cancelled at any time without further notice.
‡ These are highlights of the CHOICE REWARDS program as it pertains to this credit card. Complete terms and conditions describing eligibility of the program, CHOICE REWARDS points accrual and redemption, and other important conditions, limitations and restrictions will be sent after your Account is opened. The CHOICE REWARDS Program may not be available on all credit cards. Please read specific terms and conditions for full details.
**Certain restrictions apply to this benefit and others described in the materials sent soon after your Account is opened.
CUETS Financial is a division of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. All trade-marks are the property of their respective owners. CUETS is a trade-mark of Credit Union Central of Canada, used under licence.